Newsletters - Past Issues

Happy New Year and those resolutions January 1 2024

 

 

 

With every New Year comes the proverbial resolution for many. Whether the resolution encompasses quitting a bad habit, tightening ones financial purse strings or looking to tighten ones waist belt, we have all sworn on the first of January that we would either say good bye or say hello to a change in our behavior.

I have made a few resolutions over my 60 or so years of coherent existence, but truth be told, I am not real big on them. Not that resolutions are a bad thing. Far from it. The turning of a New Year can be the stepping stone for a positive change in one’s life.

For me however, I am the kind of person that once I make up my mind a change is in order, I don’t wait for January 1st, I just do it. I think it’s the way my brain works. If I make a New Year’s resolution, and then break it, I spiral into a deep self-loathing. In some way however, if I break a promise made on some arbitrary date like April 12th or whatever, it doesn’t hurt so bad.

That should tell you a little about myself. Mainly that I, like many of you, can break self-promises like a New Year’s resolutions on occasion, and when I do, that guilty feeling slowly creeps into your head,  which is no Bueno for nobody. (Bad grammar I know but it sounded good).

That said, for many, New Year’s resolutions can go a long way in making positive changes in one’s life and if adhered to, can really make a difference, whatever the endeavor.

Weight loss might allow one to have a longer and healthier life, a more comfortable existence and possibly save money on the medical bills.

Quitting a bad habit like smoking or excessive drinking obviously has many benefits, both for the participant and perhaps even for his friends or family.

Many resolutions can revolve around a financial change of some sort and these types of resolutions can have many positive changes for the individual as well as their family, if they have one.

Usually money problems involve spending too much, not really being aware of where the spending is going, or not having enough money in the first place. Derivations around this area might include wanting to find new ways to make more money, whether it be working longer hours or working more efficiently, or even getting a new job or starting a business.

Whereas a resolution like losing some weight has the direct benefit of looking and being healthier, improving ones finances can have multiple benefits. Since a financial goal usually involves making more, spending less, or even saving a little more or starting a retirement account, adhering to a resolution that involves money can better a person’s life in many ways.

If financial improvements are successful, it can improve one’s self-esteem, allow more time to be spent doing things one enjoys, such as traveling or hobbies, spending more time with loved ones, or something as simplistic as being able to buy more stuff. In certain cases, accomplishing a financial goal could even mean just putting food on the table, or putting more food on the table.

Since the number one cause of marriage problems centers around finances, and with recent inflation biting into finances more and more, addressing financial challenges can save marriages and no doubt, one could even go so far as to save lives.

My wife and I, upon receiving a $750 PG&E bill one month, staunchly made and kept to a “Kill a Watt” program to reduce our power consumption. Successfully reducing our costs by about 20%, we not only saved money, we help save something far more grandiose. Our planet. And doing that no doubt improved, albeit in a small way, the health of those we share the planet with.

Now that’s a resolution we all could easily get behind.

In conclusion, the turning of the New Year can give us new hope, a new outlook, and a reason to assess where we are and where we want to go. If the turning of the year gives some people a reason to make a change, and helps them stick to it, all the better.

Happy New Year to all of you.

Watching the markets so you don’t have to”    

(end)    

(As mentioned please use the below disclaimer exactly) THANKS   (Regulations)    

This article expresses the opinion of Marc Cuniberti and may not represent the opinions of this media outlet, its staff, members or underwriters (but probably does). Mr. Cuniberti holds a B.A. in Economics with honors, 1979, and California Insurance License #0L34249 and was voted Best Financial Advisor in Nevada County 2021.  His insurance agency is BAP INC. insurance services.  Email: news@moneymanagementradio.com

 

 

Looking for financial solutions!  Call me (530) 559 -1214

 


 

Kid in a candy store December 28 2023

 

 

Is the job market still on fire?

They say windows of opportunity close quickly. Nothing can be truer as it relates to the current job market.

I had three kids in college this year, and during CoVid, I encouraged them to apply for apprentice programs at the highest quality institutions they could find. I explained to them firms like banks, financial advisory firms, insurance companies, high tech companies and the like were clamoring for warm bodies.

Simply put, regardless whether potential workers were afraid of CoVid or sitting by the river contemplating their naval (as my dad used to say) few people wanted to work and companies were desperate to fill their many job vacancies.

Heck, even my local Bank of America shuttered its doors on certain days due to the lack of available bodies to man the teller windows.

Unlike decades before where the world was flooded each and every year with college grads viscously competing for jobs, these last few years reminded me of the proverbial kid in a candy store for those willing to set the alarm clock and get their butts out of bed and to a work desk somewhere.

I hammered on all three of my lovelies to hit the yellow pages (well nowadays the internet) and put their face in front of a hungry interviewer who was given the edict to fill the seat with a willing worker.

In fact, in my 45 or so odd years of working, I could not remember a time when it was easier to land a good paying job somewhere than during and right after the CoVid era.

In the past, a college degree in no way guaranteed you a job, even with a solid degree in a hard science, let alone those majoring in sociology or communications. Not knocking those degrees mind you, but they are two of the harder to employ degrees out of many on surveys of past graduates a few years into the workforce.

Not so during Covid.

Institutions of the highest caliber were more than eager to hire high school grads willing to work, and if you had a college degree, all the better. College grads have had a golden opportunity of not only getting a job, but getting a good job.

Fast forward to today and the employment picture is reverting back to where it was for decades. Graduates who sat back and took their time to grab a job may now be realizing that with inflation soaring and CoVid savings evaporating, grads by the ton are hitting the streets again looking for work.

The sobering news is that companies may not be hiring due to the slowing economy, and many are laying off workers as the worst inflation of 40 years takes a bite out of consumer demand.

From Reuters just last week comes the sobering news for graduates and non-graduates alike looking for work:

“U.S. job openings dropped to more than a 2-1/2-year low in October, the strongest sign yet that demand for labor was cooling amid higher interest rates”.

One of my sons has just graduated from U.C. Irvine and having to now spread his wings and pay rent in the Los Angeles, he has moved into the ranks of those looking for a good paying job and finding a time of it securing employment.

As dad warned him a few years back, an apprenticeship with a bank or advisory firm or some other high paying employer a year or so back would have likely solidified him into a great job now once graduated. Having waited however, he is now competing with many others in the same predicament: Too many graduates sans a parent paycheck needing work but finding fewer job openings.

In conclusion, the CoVid years was literally a once in a lifetime window where landing a job was a foregone conclusion as long as one wanted to work, which apparently not many did.

Now that times are harder and prices are higher and the economy doesn’t look to improve much anytime soon despite what the CNBC cheerleaders tell you, the job market has reverted back to where it was for so many years.

If you want a job, a good paying job, once again, you better have a sturdy pair of walking shoes and fast internet and be prepared to use them.

Watching the markets so you don’t have to”    

(end)    

(As mentioned please use the below disclaimer exactly) THANKS   (Regulations)    

This article expresses the opinion of Marc Cuniberti and is not meant as investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities, nor represents the opinion of any bank, investment firm or RIA, nor this media outlet, its staff, members or underwriters. Mr. Cuniberti holds a B.A. in Economics with honors, 1979, and California Insurance License #0L34249 His insurance agency is BAP INC. insurance services.  Email: news@moneymanagementradio.com

 

 

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Open letter to investors Nov 20 2023

Greetings and salutations!

Wanted to update a bit on the markets. First of all I had a total knee replacement on Nov 8th and as always, the office staff and Jess covered me while I was in surgery. The next day, known as day one was brutal. The last 5 or 6 days haven’t been fun either but stayed away from the drugs mostly. On occasion however, they were absolutely necessary!

On to the markets: Hunkered down in T bills and the like may have avoided a negative market in the early fall and late summer.  

This week saw a lower inflation metric float in. Now be clear, I do not think we will get inflation under control and look for an article on that soon that I will send to you shortly.

However the markets trade on sentiment, not reality. The markets REFLECT reality eventually but trade on the sum of the beliefs of all the traders in it on any given day.

That said, the most recent belief is the FEDS are done with interest rate increases. I tend to agree. But I differ in why I believe this. The FEDS believe inflation is abating but they are not sure. The RATE of inflation indeed may be slowing, but it’s still up. Sort of like a drug addict claiming he has kicked the habit because he has slowed his increasing dosage but still increases it with every fix.

Yea, it is sort of like that.

The news media and the public dissemination and analysis of the inflation data is very skewed in my opinion. Slowing inflation is not SOLVED inflation.

Inflation is still a very serious threat to both the markets and the consumer. The only way we would see relief is if we saw reduced prices, or what is called deflation. In that way we could get back to where we were. But with higher wages being demanded across many union fronts, wage push inflation is probably right behind the inflation we are already seeing.

The point is that not only have prices increased already damaging consumer pocketbooks, inflation may be slowing but it is STILL RISING.

That said, the markets are looking at the slowing inflation data as a good enough reason to make the markets run, at least temporarily. Therefore in a more aggressive stance as far as being in or out of a larger position of equities, we may have dipped our toes a little more into various stocks and indexes.

I will be, given my opinion of the markets, fast on the trigger finger to dump if indeed the markets turned down again. Nothing is guaranteed of course, we can only attempt to protect portfolios when it comes to events happening in the macroeconomic arena.

What may be our largest holdings, EIi Lilly, and Novo Nordisk, which both make the ground  breaking weight loss drugs that also appear to help with other addictions, are gaining traction once again as each subsequent news announcement excites investors. We may continue to hold these as I think these drugs will drive prices much higher. My opinion of course.

Technology seems to be in rotation again, and we may be seeing the start of the Santa Claus rally. The Santa Claus rally is a theory that stocks rally going into Christmas because of the enlightened mood of investors. It is interesting to note that the news media’s claims that increased sales point to a healthy consumer. But remember, they do not count number of units sold, they only count the total nominal amount of sales. So we must ask ourselves, with inflation, it is fairly obvious that more money is being spent on goods and services because of the much higher prices we have seen with our inflation, but figure might not mean more units were sold. They don’t track that figure in the aggregate so we may never know. But we can use common sense. Higher prices means more money spent, and not necessarily more actual units sold.

I am of the opinion, that there have actually been fewer units sold, as we see a few percentage points of increase in total sales while inflation is running much higher than a measly few percentage points. It is the reason every year we see increasing Christmas sales, even as the economy may be spiraling.

But it makes for good news spin doesn’t it? Especially coming into an election year.

In my opinion sales volume should be replaced with number of units sold. That would give us a better indication of how the economy is doing.

For now, we will dip more toes in the proverbial waters as the market may be setting up for a mini-bull period as we move towards the holidays, yet always with an eye on the exit doors if necessary.

In conclusion, if anything has changed in your financial situation, or anything else that I should know about, please contact me. I will check back in a while. I am hoping this knee surgery recovery goes well and appreciate all the well wishes.

We will talk in a bit, 

“Watching the market so you don’t have to”

Marc

 

 

 

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