Newsletters - Past Issues

Update September 5 2022

Is this in our future for the US dollar?

With inflation the worst in 4 decades, we look for reasons why prices are skyrocketing. Economist Milton Friedman said “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output”.

Put simply, increase the currency in an economy faster than the total output of goods and services increases and inflation will rise. The more imbalance of currency to production, the higher the inflation.

Washington for decades seemingly discounts Friedman’s theory. It’s no surprise to anyone that freshly minted money has poured out of Washington’s money conduit, the Federal Reserve, with the most egregious money creation occurring in the last 2 years or so. The more than generous handouts were an attempt to stave off the detrimental effects of CoVid and its subsequent worldwide shutdowns by governments everywhere.

Much of the blame coming out of Washington points the inflation finger at the Russian/Ukrainian conflict which has pinched down the supply lines of many commodities. Although there is little doubt the war has constrained supply, some argue that much of the inflation follows along the lines of Friedman’s hypothesis.

After all, Friedman was no dummy. He was fully aware of supply side effects on prices, yet if one rereads his inflation hypothesis, he unequivocally points the finger exclusively at monetary creation as the sole cause of inflation.

There are arguments stating worldwide economies cannot simply be shut down almost entirely for a year or more and then turned back on like a light switch. Supply conduits are complexed systems. Once halted, it takes months to start them up again and even more time to get them functioning to the levels they were prior to the shutdowns.

No doubt Friedman never imagined a total stoppage to the entire world’s workforce as was witnessed during CoVid, and one wonders what Friedman would have to say as it pertains to inflation. We will never know if he would have adjusted his exclusive claim that money creation is the sole source of a general increase in prices.

That said, there is little argument among scholars that the massive money creation that was bequeathed on individuals and businesses in the last two years has played a large part in the inflation we are now seeing. The total money supply in the U.S. was increased by 40% or so in the last two years. This is without precedent.

That said, there is still little mention in our political hallways that at least acknowledge that massive government spending is contributing to our record inflationary rates we are now seeing.

To validate that one, look no further than to the State of California who will soon be sending out yet more checks to its residents to help offset the rising costs consumers are struggling with. The irony, at least to those that believe Friedman’s hypotheses on inflation is correct, is that California is printing even more money to counteract the previous effects of previous money printing.

Sounds like typical government reasoning to this analyst.

“Watching the markets so you don’t have to”

This article expresses the opinion of Marc Cuniberti and is not meant as investment advice, nor represents the opinion of any bank, investment firm or RIA, nor this media outlet, its staff, members or underwriters. Mr. Cuniberti holds a B.A. in Economics with honors, 1979, SDSU, and California Insurance License #0L34249. His website is moneymanagementradio.com, and was recently voted Best Financial Advisor in Nevada County. 530-559-1214

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Update Aug 31 2022

Losing one’s income can be devastating. Single income families are always teetering on the brink. With but a single breadwinner, family members who are the source of that income may feel a tremendous amount of pressure. Should the breadwinner lose his or her job, the family’s financial picture can suddenly turn ominous if other resources are not available like savings, retirement plans or extended family emergency assistance

During my times of being a financial advisor, I see financial snapshots that can scare the hell out of me. By nature, I am conservative guy, both in my investing and my operation of the family budget. Although the wife handles the bill paying, I handle the income side of things and am always scanning our financial picture with unnecessary foreboding.

Being somewhat of a nervous nelly when it comes to evaluating our finances, money in and money out, and our liabilities, I am always thinking worst case scenarios. As such, my brain is always thinking of ways not only to streamline expenditures, but to mainline our income streams.

Long ago, I knew that working for someone else put us at risk of job loss which essentially was the decision of someone else. That began the search for ways to be my own boss and eliminate the risk of having a bad hair day or telling the wrong joke at work and subsequently finding a pink slip in my inbox.

For my family’s sake, and for my sanity, I ventured out on my own very early on.

Right out of college I started selling houses, with a side job of selling cars. I also exercised my knowledge of the markets (B.A. in economics 1979) and began my career in the markets to supplement my income. Soon after I started an engineering firm, building off a full time job as an engineer working for someone else early one, then quitting and starting the firm.

Although maddening at times with the amount of work I had to put in to maintain my handful of endeavors, I found the multiple sources of income from my various endeavors not only gave me a sense of accomplishment, but provided multiple sources of income as well.

The experience showed me the key to success which is to hard work and put in the necessary long hours to grow the businesses.

Fast forward to today and I not only still have the engineering firm, but also a financial career, an insurance and annuity company and a successful media company.

This provides me with the basis of what I deem necessary to secure ones ongoing financial viability which is to have multiple sources of income.

That said, during years of scrutinizing other peoples finances, it’s amazing how many peoples financial snapshot gives me the willys.

For instance, during the real estate blow up in 2008, I met many a family that had only one breadwinner yet had bought big houses stuffed with big toys like boats, multiple cars, vacation homes and you name it.

Other investors owned multiple rentals, and although rentals can be a great source of income, they can also drag you down into the depths of bankruptcy should tenants start to experience financial hardship and stop paying the rent.

For instance, who would have forecasted a rental moratorium such as what we had during CoVid.

I would then also think “what happens if this person losses his or her job?”

Although many thrive and survive on single incomes, many others fall into the pit of hardship, or worse, into the hell that is a bankruptcy if a job is lost.

During times of economic prosperity, single incomes can be enough to provide the necessary finances that a family needs to prosper. But in times of economic distress such as 2008/09, the CoVid crisis or today’s inflationary environment, the gears of debt can crater a family’s financial future in a hurry should the single income disappear in a job layoff.

In conclusion, although some might not be able to work for themselves for a variety of reasons, securing additional sources of income through whatever mechanisms might be available and taking a hard look at expenditures and one’s financial exposures can go a long way in keeping their monetary viability intact.

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Update Aug 22 2022

Gorge time for adding stocks?

Seems like most of my latest articles have been about inflation, the Federal Reserve (the FED) and their interest rate increases, and the crazy action in the stock markets.

Yes, there is more to economic news than those three topics, but the markets crazy action is the result of the first two topics I mentioned, inflation and the FED.

With the recent four week rally in the markets now in the books, investors are wondering if it’s finally time to relax, take a deep breath and push the buy button.

Throughout the duration of the brutal hammering of the markets in the last nine months or so, I oscillated between remain calm, sell some stocks on the way down, and most recently, suggesting that if the FOMO bug bites you (Fear of Missing out= FOM0), nibble, instead of gorge, on a meal of solid dividend paying iconic companies and beaten up but financially strong technology stocks. These technology names exist mostly in the NASDAQ market. Some of these tech giants are off as much as 90%.

I use the word nibble instead of gorge with the thinking being, yes, they could get cheaper, but a year from now one might look back and say “why didn’t I at least buy some these when they were all beaten to hell”.

True, many of these stocks have rebounded many percentage points from their lows, but if one glances at a stock chart of many of these hammered companies, the recent rally is barely noticeable.

In other words, although many of these stocks have risen 10, 20 or 30%, to think one has missed the turn would be shortsighted. What you may only have missed out on is a bunch of head fake rallies and frustration.

Loading the boat with stocks now because of the recent rally is to believe all is well and will continue to be well in the markets and our economy.

The truth of the matter is, although the latest inflation figures hint at a reduction in inflation, we may be only at the end of the beginning (Winston Churchill- 1942).

Statistics are always backwards looking, so it in this analysts opinion we are seeing the last of the wild consumer spending brought on by the lucrative government handouts of the last 24 months, which was the start of the CoVid rescue packages.

This recent earnings reports, although bleak for some companies, were moderately ok for others.

This recent “ok” news may have encouraged some stock buyers to step forward. Additionally, last week’s drop in inflation data has also bolstered investor enthusiasm.

Since the FEDS have only started to increase interest rates, and have yet to begin Quantitative Tightening (QT), which is removing money from the economic system, the real effects of FED policy is likely only at the beginning the beginning.

Although the latest earning reports may have shown only a moderate drop in revenue for some, the next earnings season may better illustrate as to how much rope the consumer has left before he starts to feel the inflation noose tightening around his monetary neck.

As it relates to nibbling on stocks instead of gorging, should the next earning reports, which start around November, show a continued erosion in spending by consumers, the stock market could start down as economic reality bites down hard once again on Wall Street.

If you load up on stocks now based on the recent rally, you could be setting yourself up for more pain.

Best to instead nibble on a handful of profitable companies that make real products and didn’t get to badly hammered during the last earnings reports. That way if the market continues to run, you will participate, which will help to eliminate that nagging FOMO feeling. And if the market indeed takes another header in the fall, you’ll still have plenty of cash to buy stocks at even lower prices.

“Watching the markets so you don’t have to”

(end)

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Rates on investments are rising to acceptable levels. Update August 21 2022

Many investments with FDIC backing offer acceptable rates

Yields are not so paltry anymore...

With the market continuing to jerk investors to and fro, even with the recent increase in market up days compared to the first half of the year, many are looking for safe havens until the market becomes more stable.

U.S. Government “I-Bonds” from Treasurydirect.gov are paying an annual yield of close to ten percent right now and was covered in a previous Money Matters article so I won’t cover them again here.

Regular treasuries and CD’s can be bought at your local bank, credit union or brokerage house, although the interest rates are still anemic even with the Federal Reserve on an interest rate increase binge of late.

In searching for higher yielding yet safe investment vehicles from our brokerage house where we handle our accounts, the fixed income department gives direct access to CD and U.S. treasury screeners where I can view current rates and different quantity solicitations directly from such dealers.

For instance, when I go to my U.S. Treasury screener, I can see a variety of dealers offering up their treasury quantities and rates. Each dealers offering can be slightly different than the next.

Surprisingly, three, six and nine month Treasuries were offering yields north of 2%. The longer out one went, the higher the yield. The Cd’s offered on this dealer screener were equally surprising in their yields.

I, like many investors, have become used to the near zero rates banks will pay on short term savings accounts, U.S. debt like Treasury bills, bonds or notes, and money market funds. We may just assume the returns on such short term monetary commitment vehicles are paying next to nothing, and for years we may have been right.

Surprisingly, and refreshingly, by accessing direct into my brokerage firm’s dealer screen, those perceived “non-existent” or paltry rates from banking institutions are becoming somewhat of a mirage. They aren’t so paltry anymore.

Rates are actually becoming palatable, at least to this analyst, and even on short term financial instruments like Treasuries and Cds, and on instant access accounts like savings or checking, rates are rising.

Will miracles never cease…

In checking www.bankrate.com, one of my favorite comparative websites for bank rates on all sorts of financial products like Cds, Treasuries, savings and checking accounts, at first glance, the rates appear to be lower than what I can access through my dealer screener at my advisory broker.

Although financial service companies like advisors and brokers are usually sought out for stocks and bonds, I was pleasantly surprised to see not only could I buy these “bank” type products mentioned above, the rates I was seeing were comparatively very attractive.

Thank goodness I looked right?

The whole point of today’s musing is to illustrate interest rates have likely risen at your local bank and credit union, like they have at most all financial institutions. This is because of the Feds recent war on inflation. To help combat it, they are increasing interest rates.

These ongoing rate increases by the Fed have also helped increase bank product rates. That means savings and checking accounts, along with a whole slew of other typical bank offerings are likely paying higher rates then we remember.

Making a good thing even better, inquiring at your local financial advisor office about such investments that are typically bought at a bank might mean even higher rates are available there.

I was surprised to see the dealer markets our brokerage firm had access to might be offering what appeared to be even higher rates than I found elsewhere.

Only goes to show that, in these crazy times, continually circling back to what was thought to be once stale financial fishing grounds might surprise to the upside if we take the time to inquire.

Revisiting what we once thought was the mundane may not be so boring after all.

And Lord knows our pocket books could all use a little more stuffing in them.

“Watching the markets so you don’t have to”

(end)

(As mentioned please use the below disclaimer exactly) THANKS (Regulations)

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