Newsletters - Past Issues

Update Aug 22 2022

 

Gorge time for adding stocks?

 

Seems like most of my latest articles have been about inflation, the Federal Reserve (the FED) and their interest rate increases, and the crazy action in the stock markets.

Yes, there is more to economic news than those three topics, but the markets crazy action is the result of the first two topics I mentioned, inflation and the FED.

With the recent four week rally in the markets now in the books, investors are wondering if it’s finally time to relax, take a deep breath and push the buy button.

Throughout the duration of the brutal hammering of the markets in the last nine months or so, I oscillated between remain calm, sell some stocks on the way down, and most recently, suggesting that if the FOMO bug bites you (Fear of Missing out= FOM0), nibble, instead of gorge, on a meal of solid dividend paying iconic companies and beaten up but financially strong technology stocks. These technology names exist mostly in the NASDAQ market.  Some of these tech giants are off as much as 90%.

I use the word nibble instead of gorge with the thinking being, yes, they could get cheaper, but a year from now one might look back and say “why didn’t I at least buy some these when they were all beaten to hell”.

True, many of these stocks have rebounded many percentage points from their lows, but if one glances at a stock chart of many of these hammered companies, the recent rally is barely noticeable.

In other words, although many of these stocks have risen 10, 20 or 30%, to think one has missed the turn would be shortsighted. What you may only have missed out on is a bunch of head fake rallies and frustration.

Loading the boat with stocks now because of the recent rally is to believe all is well and will continue to be well in the markets and our economy.

The truth of the matter is, although the latest inflation figures hint at a reduction in inflation, we may be only at the end of the beginning (Winston Churchill- 1942).

Statistics are always backwards looking, so it in this analysts opinion we are seeing the last of the wild consumer spending brought on by the lucrative government handouts of the last 24 months, which was the start of the CoVid rescue packages.

This recent earnings reports, although bleak for some companies, were moderately ok for others.

This recent “ok” news may have encouraged some stock buyers to step forward. Additionally, last week’s drop in inflation data has also bolstered investor enthusiasm.

Since the FEDS have only started to increase interest rates, and have yet to begin Quantitative Tightening (QT), which is removing money from the economic system, the real effects of FED policy is likely only at the beginning the beginning.

Although the latest earning reports may have shown only a moderate drop in revenue for some, the next earnings season may better illustrate as to how much rope the consumer has left before he starts to feel the inflation noose tightening around his monetary neck.

As it relates to nibbling on stocks instead of gorging, should the next earning reports, which start around November, show a continued erosion in spending by consumers, the stock market could start down as economic reality bites down hard once again on Wall Street.

If you load up on stocks now based on the recent rally, you could be setting yourself up for more pain.

Best to instead nibble on a handful of profitable companies that make real products and didn’t get to badly hammered during the last earnings reports. That way if the market continues to run, you will participate, which will help to eliminate that nagging FOMO feeling. And if the market indeed takes another header in the fall, you’ll still have plenty of cash to buy stocks at even lower prices.

“Watching the markets so you don’t have to”

(end)

(As mentioned please use the below disclaimer exactly) THANKS   (Regulations)   

This article expresses the opinion of Marc Cuniberti and is not meant as investment advice, nor represents the opinion of any bank, investment firm or RIA, nor this media outlet, its staff, members or underwriters. Mr. Cuniberti holds a B.A. in Economics with honors, 1979, SDSU, and California Insurance License #0L34249. His website is moneymanagementradio.com, and was recently voted Best Financial Advisor in Nevada County. 530-559-1214

 

 

Special note: For those wishing principal guarantees and possible market upside participation, you may consider a fixed indexed annuity. Purchased annuities have no management fees and are 100% principal protected. These I have found are desired by those that cannot tolerate any losses whatsoever, or are extremely sensitive to any kind of loss. They also will participate (rise in value) if the market (S&P 500) rises between the applicable time periods as set forth in the contract, so they have a minimum guaranteed interest of 7.2% over the life of contract OR you get a portion of the increase in the market. The greater amount of the two is what they guarantee and always 100% guaranteed to get at LEAST all your principal back and a MINIMUM of 7.2% on the entire balance OR the market upside, whichever is GREATER. The best of both worlds. Contact me for details.

 


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Rates on investments are rising to acceptable levels. Update August 21 2022

 

Many investments with FDIC backing offer acceptable rates

 

 

Yields are not so paltry anymore...

With the market continuing to jerk investors to and fro, even with the recent increase in market up days compared to the first half of the year, many are looking for safe havens until the market becomes more stable.

U.S. Government “I-Bonds” from Treasurydirect.gov are paying an annual yield of close to ten percent right now and was covered in a previous Money Matters article so I won’t cover them again here.

Regular treasuries and CD’s can be bought at your local bank, credit union or brokerage house, although the interest rates are still anemic even with the Federal Reserve on an interest rate increase binge of late.

In searching for higher yielding yet safe investment vehicles from our brokerage house where we handle our accounts, the fixed income department gives direct access to CD and U.S. treasury screeners where I can view current rates and different quantity solicitations directly from such dealers.

For instance, when I go to my U.S. Treasury screener, I can see a variety of dealers offering up their treasury quantities and rates. Each dealers offering can be slightly different than the next.

Surprisingly, three, six and nine month Treasuries were offering yields north of 2%. The longer out one went, the higher the yield.  The Cd’s offered on this dealer screener were equally surprising in their yields.

I, like many investors, have become used to the near zero rates banks will pay on short term savings accounts, U.S. debt like Treasury bills, bonds or notes, and money market funds. We may just assume the returns on such short term monetary commitment vehicles are paying next to nothing, and for years we may have been right.

Surprisingly, and refreshingly, by accessing direct into my brokerage firm’s dealer screen, those perceived “non-existent” or paltry rates from banking institutions are becoming somewhat of a mirage. They aren’t so paltry anymore.

Rates are actually becoming palatable, at least to this analyst, and even on short term financial instruments like Treasuries and Cds, and on instant access accounts like savings or checking, rates are rising.

Will miracles never cease…

In checking www.bankrate.com, one of my favorite comparative websites for bank rates on all sorts of financial products like Cds, Treasuries, savings and checking accounts, at first glance, the rates appear to be lower than what I can access through my dealer screener at my advisory broker.

Although financial service companies like advisors and brokers are usually sought out for stocks and bonds, I was pleasantly surprised to see not only could I buy these “bank” type products mentioned above, the rates I was seeing were comparatively very attractive.

Thank goodness I looked right?

The whole point of today’s musing is to illustrate interest rates have likely risen at your local bank and credit union, like they have at most all financial institutions. This is because of the Feds recent war on inflation. To help combat it, they are increasing interest rates.

These ongoing rate increases by the Fed have also helped increase bank product rates. That means savings and checking accounts, along with a whole slew of other typical bank offerings are likely paying higher rates then we remember.

Making a good thing even better, inquiring at your local financial advisor office about such investments that are typically bought at a bank might mean even higher rates are available there.

I was surprised to see the dealer markets our brokerage firm had access to might be offering what appeared to be even higher rates than I found elsewhere.

Only goes to show that, in these crazy times, continually circling back to what was thought to be once stale financial fishing grounds might surprise to the upside if we take the time to inquire.

Revisiting what we once thought was the mundane may not be so boring after all.

And Lord knows our pocket books could all use a little more stuffing in them.

“Watching the markets so you don’t have to”

(end)

(As mentioned please use the below disclaimer exactly) THANKS   (Regulations)   

This article expresses the opinion of Marc Cuniberti and is not meant as investment advice, nor represents the opinion of any bank, investment firm or RIA, nor this media outlet, its staff, members or underwriters. Mr. Cuniberti holds a B.A. in Economics with honors, 1979, SDSU, and California Insurance License #0L34249. His website is moneymanagementradio.com, and was recently voted Best Financial Advisor in Nevada County. 530-559-1214

 

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Money Matters update August 8 2022

 

 Is the US dollar headed for 18 zeros ?

 

Hello Money Matters fans,

 

With the market continuing to jerk investors to and fro, even with the recent increase in market up days compared to the first half of the year, many are looking for safe havens until the market becomes more stable.

U.S. Government “I-Bonds” from Treasurydirect.gov are paying an annual yield of close to ten percent right now and was covered in a previous Money Matters article so I won’t cover them again here.

Regular treasuries and CD’s can be bought at your local bank, credit union or brokerage house, although the interest rates are still anemic even with the Federal Reserve on an interest rate increase binge of late.

In searching for higher yielding yet safe investment vehicles from our brokerage house where we handle our accounts, the fixed income department gives direct access to CD and U.S. treasury screeners where I can view current rates and different quantity solicitations directly from such dealers.

For instance, when I go to my U.S. Treasury screener, I can see a variety of dealers offering up their treasury quantities and rates. Each dealers offering can be slightly different than the next.

Surprisingly, three, six and nine month Treasuries were offering yields north of 2%. The longer out one went, the higher the yield.  The Cd’s offered on this dealer screener were equally surprising in their yields.

I, like many investors, have become used to the near zero rates banks will pay on short term savings accounts, U.S. debt like Treasury bills, bonds or notes, and money market funds. We may just assume the returns on such short term monetary commitment vehicles are paying next to nothing, and for years we may have been right.

Surprisingly, and refreshingly, by accessing direct into my brokerage firm’s dealer screen, those perceived “non-existent” or paltry rates from banking institutions are becoming somewhat of a mirage. They aren’t so paltry anymore.

Rates are actually becoming palatable, at least to this analyst, and even on short term financial instruments like Treasuries and Cds, and on instant access accounts like savings or checking, rates are rising.

Will miracles never cease…

In checking www.bankrate.com, one of my favorite comparative websites for bank rates on all sorts of financial products like Cds, Treasuries, savings and checking accounts, at first glance, the rates appear to be lower than what I can access through my dealer screener at my advisory broker.

Although financial service companies like advisors and brokers are usually sought out for stocks and bonds, I was pleasantly surprised to see not only could I buy these “bank” type products mentioned above, the rates I was seeing were comparatively very attractive.

Thank goodness I looked right?

The whole point of today’s musing is to illustrate interest rates have likely risen at your local bank and credit union, like they have at most all financial institutions. This is because of the Feds recent war on inflation. To help combat it, they are increasing interest rates.

These ongoing rate increases by the Fed have also helped increase bank product rates. That means savings and checking accounts, along with a whole slew of other typical bank offerings are likely paying higher rates then we remember.

Making a good thing even better, inquiring at your local financial advisor office about such investments that are typically bought at a bank might mean even higher rates are available there.

I was surprised to see the dealer markets our brokerage firm had access to might be offering what appeared to be even higher rates than I found elsewhere.

Only goes to show that, in these crazy times, continually circling back to what was thought to be once stale financial fishing grounds might surprise to the upside if we take the time to inquire.

Revisiting what we once thought was the mundane may not be so boring after all.

And Lord knows our pocket books could all use a little more stuffing in them.

 

Marc was recently voted Best Financial Advisor in Nevada County. 530-559-1214

Turning 65?         Call me!

 

(530)559-1214

 


 

Bitcoin bust and trust UPDATE July 2 2022

 

Vapor....

 

The latest news in the market resembles the 1950’s radio disc jockey that shouted between songs “and the hits just keep on coming”.

Previous Wall Street darling stocks manage to get off the mat after being hammered down 70, 80, 90 percent or more, only to be carpet slammed again by another brutal sell off on any given day. Relentless is the word that comes to mind.

Crypto fans who dabble in the Bitcoin universe and thought they were safe are finding out they too are not immune from the markets financial beat downs.

More than a handful of cyber coin dealers and marketers have had liquidity problems in the past few weeks with some halting or limiting redemptions. The so called “stable” coin, Terra USD, which was supposed to remain in lockstep with the US dollar, lost its mojo as it not only failed to maintain its peg to the dollar, but almost completely collapsed. Now the news wires contain almost daily headlines that major players in the crypto universe are having some very serious financial issues.

Warning multiple times Cyber coins were “vapor”, I reiterate a direr warning again today that the whole cyber universe reeks of an out of control mania that will end badly. In fact, the cyber coin phenomenon is the worst mania ever when compared to previous price explosions in any other asset mania recorded in human history.

Unfortunately, these types of liquidity headlines have a tendency to become only more frequent, until the “one” headline that announces a total collapse of the asset in question or that of a major player hits the wires and causes an all-out panic wipe out.

Not saying it will happen of course, as no one can forecast the workings of financial markets, but the whole thing has a very familiar ring to it.

Since Bitcoin came to my attention about 7 years ago, I didn’t trust it and written such in more than a handful of news articles and covered it on my radio show multiple times over the years.

The coins themselves, called tokens, are not guaranteed by any government, and the market has grown into the trillions. It is estimated over 100 billion worth of bitcoin accounts have been lost in cyber space due to password loss or theft. The actual numbers may never be known. Never knew anyone who lost a bank or stock account.

This brings another issue to light that bothers the heck out of me. Truthfully I don’t fully understand the whole cyber coin thing, how it works, who runs it, and all the ins and outs of this relatively new version of electronic currency, and frankly I believe few do.

With trillions in cyberspace, not doubt there are many, many hands in the mix, of which we have no idea of their moral makeup and honesty versus their self-interests.  We also know that there are tens of thousands of very computer savvy thieves running amongst them.

With no one you can call or ask for assistance from, an investor is at the mercy of this vast and complicated electronic universe. Making matters worse, it has no checks or balances that apparently work right and there is little to no regulatory oversight at this time, although some is pending by concerned governments.

The whole things is downright frightening to this analyst.

And finally, I am surprised one of the reasons proponents of Bitcoin tell me they want to invest in it is that governments can’t mess with it and cyber coins autonomous qualities. Excuse me, but Bitcoin and other cyber currencies are anything but autonomous. A dollar bill or gold coin has no memory, which is to say what it was spent on is forever unknown to the next holder. Look at a dollar and tell me what is has bought. Ditto with gold and silver coins. Cyber coins however, being in cyber space, forever maintain a record of where and when it moved. This is the ultimate in a tracking history should governments wish to install themselves more into the universe of Cyber. That the anti-government and conspiracy crowd flocks to this anti-cash asset where its record keeping is airtight and written in stone forever, is to me, more than baffling.

“Watching the markets so you don’t have to”

(end)

(As mentioned please use the below disclaimer exactly) THANKS   (Regulations)   

This article expresses the opinion of Marc Cuniberti and is not meant as investment advice, nor represents the opinion of any bank, investment firm or RIA, nor this media outlet, its staff, members or underwriters. Mr. Cuniberti holds a B.A. in Economics with honors, 1979, SDSU, and California Insurance License #0L34249. His website is moneymanagementradio.com, and was recently voted Best Financial Advisor in Nevada County. 530-559-1214

 


 

The stable coin- bitcoin blow up Update June 8, 2022

 

Is the crash in Cyber tokens over?

 

After nine straight weeks of a bitcoin decline, now the experiment that combined math and software to get a digital currency to behave like a U.S.dollar crashed in dramatic fashion, posing the biggest threat yet to develop a decentralized cyber currency.

 

TerraUSD, or “UST”, is another in a long line of attempted cyber currencies, called “cyber coins”, the most celebrated of which is Bitcoin.

 

TerraUSD, was called a stable coin, which, unlike its thousands of counter parts which include bitcoin, was developed to provide a “stable” valued vehicle in the cyber coin universe. Investors in cyber tokens know of the wild swings that cyber coins can have. Terra was an attempt to provide a coin that would retain its value at par, which is to say, remain worth one U.S. dollar at all times.

 

TerraUSD, an “algorithmic stable coin”, uses a variety of methodologies and incentives in an attempt to maintain its peg of one-to-one to the dollar. It strives to accomplish this by working with a crypto token in the same ecosystem. That token, called Luna, can be swapped for Terra and vice versa.

 

This back and forth swapping by traders supposedly keeps the price of a Terra where it should be, which is walking in lockstep with the U.S. dollar.

 

The thinking around developing a stable vehicle was to enable crypto traders to make transactions in differing cyber coins easily and quickly without needing to leave the digital asset universe. It also was thought to alleviate intermediaries and the concerns the value of various coins would fluctuate when trades or swaps were executed.

 

If it all sounds a little gobblydegookish, it’s not you. I have found unless one is a full on member of the computer geek squad, the world of cyber coin will be more than a bit confusing.

 

Even for experienced Wall Street alumni like myself, although millions of people trade and write about the world of cyber coin, there is much we plain folks don’t understand about exactly what is going on in the cyber coin universe.

 

A month ago, the future looked bright for TerraUSD. Until last Monday, when all of the mechanisms that were supposed to keep TerraUSD stable, were anything but stable.

 

TerraUSD fell to a low of 60 cents on that day, and reached a further low of around 20 cents in another crash on Wednesday. At the time of this writing, it sits a two cents.

(June 29, 2022-https://www.coindesk.com/price/terrausd/  )

 

Pretty rocky stuff for a coin called “stable”.

 

The event took down the market cap of TerraUSD from $18.4 billion to essentially zero. The Luna “backbone token” also avalanched.

 

Nikita Fadeev, head of crypto fund Fasanara Digital, which de-risked its position in advance of the crash, said: “Everything broke. It is full capitulation.”

 

Exactly why all of the so called “stable” UST mechanisms failed remains unclear. Conspiracy theories abound as to what happened, but in this analyst opinion, when vast amounts of monies are floating around in cyberspace, this whole fiasco comes as no surprise. Once again, many lost everything while others walked away very rich. Nothing new in the world of cyber coin.


I know there are a lot smarter people than me when it comes to the net and the cyber coin playground. As a result, it’s no place I want to put my hard earned money, and I doubt the average Joe Shmoe should be doing it either.

 

The move is on to provide more backing to TerraUSD to once again stabilize its value, with figures around the 1.5 billion being tossed about. But since none of this is government backed, I view the entire cyber coin universe and its multiple trading platforms to access it, one big Wild West show. There are landmines everywhere, it rife with amateurs and novice traders, and its run by techno wizards of unknown repute.

 

The whole thing, at least to me, reminds me of a three ring circus, complete with the “3 Card Monty” con game, where everybody that plays never seems to win, at least for long.

 

With the latest collapse of the cyber token called “stable coin”, I can say it comes as no surprise. What is ironic is that what was supposed to be the epitome of why people flock to the bitcoin game, which is autonomous stability and safety, failed miserably in both respects.

Concluding, if some people still elect to play in the cyber coin universe after this collapse, it will be one of most baffling investor decisions I have ever seen.

 “Watching the markets so you don’t have to”

(end)

(As mentioned please use the below disclaimer exactly) THANKS   (Regulations)   

This article expresses the opinion of Marc Cuniberti and is not meant as investment advice, nor represents the opinion of any bank, investment firm or RIA, nor this media outlet, its staff, members or underwriters. Mr. Cuniberti holds a B.A. in Economics with honors, 1979, SDSU, and California Insurance License #0L34249. His website is moneymanagementradio.com, and was recently voted Best Financial Advisor in Nevada County. 530-559-1214

 

 

Voted Best Financial Advisor

Need help?
Call me (530) 559-1214


 
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