Money Matters update September 26, 2018

Hello Money Fans,

The next show is October 4, 2018 at noon PST on KVMR. Tune in. Been a long slug in the markets with the old Dow high of 26616 being eclipsed last week. Will it hold? We will see. Its a good sign for people betting the market will go up. I have included an article I penned on the state of the Economy, at least by the stats I follow. Many will debate whether we have a booming economy for all, and I am of the opinion the answer is a resounding NO. Many are suffering but that is the Federal Reserves fault and years of bad policy by Washington. The blame cannot be laid at any one persons feet, but rather at the feet of many in a long line of economic meatheads that do not understand the way all things money on a grand scale operate but that is a story for another day. For now enjoy the articles below and contact me for money management, retirement solutions, insurance and annuities. 

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An economy on fire or a forest fire starting? 

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As a fairly visible economist (San Diego- B.A Economics 1974) and financial advisor due to my personal media exposure, I get tons of email both economic and political. I learned a long time ago to be in the public eye and spout personal politics is asking for incoming flak. As a result I stay well away from espousing political viewpoints for the most part. I do favor, economically speaking (because I am an economic guy) a free market in most things and that in itself draws fire from some but I take it with tasty grains of salt when I do.

That being said, I must admit most folks don’t really understand how markets really work and get their education from their preferred aisle of the political pulpit and in doing so are usually a little misinformed to grossly uneducated. In fact, I grow weary of the same old mantras and one liners from minimally economically educated (because how many people really study economics) who espouse whatever party line they read or hear on public media. Arguing with some is an exercise in futility as even the fact that I may know a bit more about an economy than they do does little to quell the notion they (usually with little or no economic education) know more about the economy how it works then I do.

I try not to banter or debate such people or their rhetoric as once you remove fact from the argument, what remains is only bias thinking mostly based on skewed facts and unsubstantiated figures twisted into such by whatever party seems to be favored. Basically people lean into Trump or against him and based on that out comes the so called true state of the economy, the reality of the rich and the plight of the working stiff.

Throwing aside the misinformation and unwavering devotion toward whatever party someone might support, the closest we can get to assessing whether the economy is doing well or not under the current administration is to look at the closest thing to fact we have (note I said “closest”) and only then can we arrive at our best guess as to how the engine of business is running.

Although I doubt the accuracy of the government reporting agencies where most stats come from, we have little alternative but to draw at least some valid conclusions from those agencies which employ hundreds of government economists and analysts to tell us how Uncle Sam is doing money wise.

On the employment front, jobless claims are the lowest they have been since 1969 (Wall Street Journal) and yes, the methodology is constantly being changed by the reporting agencies but this is what we have. The stock market is close to all times highs (Dow Jones Industrial Average) and the U.S. trade gap is narrowing which means we are gaining in selling more exports versus what we import (Wall Street Journal). Manufacturing is up for the second straight month and U.S. non-manufacturing is also up. The tax reform albeit small has undoubtedly also helped the markets and those that manufacturer the things we buy and sell.

The Wall Street Journal also joins other news media reporting that inflation is heating up and although unpalatable, all these statistics when taken in mass point towards an economy that may be doing a heck of a lot better than in years past.

I know one side of aisle will point to other statistics that illustrate perhaps the polar opposite of a healthy economy, but seeing as stats can be manipulated AND fabricated by just about everyone, we have to put more weight into something and I choose to at least somewhat believe the plain old vanilla statistics put out by the various government agencies instead of politically motivated media outlets.

 I also look only at the statistics I deem valuable and directional, meaning they have a good track record of portraying what may be actually happening in the hallways, lobbies and storefronts of American businesses.

I know there are some out there who will argue the current economy is in shambles but if we remove the mask of bias and take the statistics for what they are really telling us, the economy and American businesses have seen much worse.

In fact, if I was to give my educated opinion, the economy hasn’t been this healthy in decades. Not to say bad things can’t happen or that the economy will continue to blossom (although in my opinion it will for a few years anyway barring some unforeseen catastrophe), for the most part, the changes in how business is treated by Washington has gone a long way in putting our economy back together from many years of bad medicine initiated by same.

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This has been a hard week for my family but this too will pass

I just packed up my oldest son Kyle and spent the weekend dropping him off and getting him settled at UC Irvine where he is now a first year freshman. Kyle was a straight A student in high school, athlete of the year 2018, homecoming King, had a Senate Internship, participated in the Food Bank of Nevada County for 3 years and besides the other extra-curricular activities he was a part of, even penned a few articles here in the Territorial Dispatch.

Of my three kids, he is the most dynamic as far as outgoing and what I would deem “at risk”, being exploratory and inquisitive. I can honestly say I dreaded this day for years and now that it’s here and his room is empty, I know the pain of sending a child off into the world.

Not that I don’t know loss, I do. I lost both my older brothers when I was a teen, one by suicide and one two years later by motorcycle accident. I saw what that did to my parents, especially my father, who really never was the same after that. So I know a dreaded loss all too well.

I know I cannot compare losing a child through death and sending one off to school. One obviously is much more painful and horrendous. And I know there are parents out there who would give anything to send their child, who may have passed, off to college in lieu of losing them forever through death. And in that thought comes at least some odd sort of comfort, knowing the dreadful alternative. I am so fortunate to have a child to send off anywhere, when some have no children and others have lost them.

And for this I am thankful. Kyle is an amazing young adult, and at this moment in time I miss him terribly. To feel so only means I have an amazing person as a son, and I love him dearly and know he loves me. But it still hurts.

I know this is the way of the world and parents have been sending their kids away and off into the world since time began and I am only one in a long line of parents who have experienced this. I too know the feeling will pass in time, and I like many parents will look forward to holidays and summers when their shiny faces will again grace the family home, and extra plates will be set at the table, the exact amount of plates that were there when they were young and learning their way.

Kyle grew up in Grass Valley and went to a small private high school and now is at a school with 36,000 students located on the outskirts of Los Angeles and for this I am glad. He will now see the real world of the big city and learn so much more in the school and the surrounding areas. He was already wide eyed and opened mouth while we drove through Newport Beach and saw a Maserati, Bugatti, Ferrari and McLaren auto dealerships all within a quarter mile of each other. Before then, Kyle could only see these cars in photos. Now he saw hundreds of them for real, for sale and up close and personal. One real world example of what places outside of Grass Valley hold in store for him.

I am sure Kyle will probably drink too much beer some night, and miss church, get a girlfriend or three, play some prank and do something way too dangerous for his parents liking and I can’t stop him from any of these things. The reality is that he is 8 hours away by car at school and is his own adult person now. And it brings to mind the first part of the serenity prayer; “God grand me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change…..”

And I wouldn’t change it if I could. Kyle’s time has come to leave the nest and become his own person and I know this is what has to happen. And no, I don’t particularly like the feelings I am having right now, at least some of them. They hurt and remind me of other losses. But that’s life and I am glad he has arrived at his time of blossom and will now go make his mark on the world. A world which so desperately needs adults like Kyle. So for now, my wife and I will finish raising his younger brother and sister and soon send them off to college one day, and maybe it will get a little easier next time around.

Or maybe not.

But however I feel then and now, I know it’s the right feelings to have and I thank God for blessing me with the reasons for feeling them.

Marc Cuniberti hosts Money Matters on KVMR FM which is carried on 65 stations nationwide. He is a financial columnist for a variety of publications and Head Varsity Baseball coach at FLCS. His is the owner of Bay Area Process Inc. and holds California Insurance Lic # OL34249. Marc holds a BA in Economics from SDU with honors and is a big brother for BBBS of Nevada County. He produces the “Investing in Community’ video series as a public awareness program for social media. His website is moneymanagementradio.com and he can be reached at (530) 559-1214. His videos can be found on Facebook (FB) under Marc Cuniberti and also on the "Money Matters Investing in Community" FB page.