Newsletters - Past Issues

Update Novo NOrdisk Jan 6 2025

Those new weight loss drugs!

The biggest talking point in the pharmaceutical industry at the moment revolves around treatments known as glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) agonists. GLP-1 agonists are used to treat diabetes and chronic weight management, although research suggests these medications could have other applications in areas such as sleep apnea, kidney disease, and cardiovascular complications.

At the moment, the hottest GLP-1 treatment is Ozempic. Danish pharmaceutical leader Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) is the brains behind Ozempic, as well as sibling GLP-1 medications including Wegovy, Rybelsus, and Saxenda. You'd think with such a robust lineup of options surrounding one of healthcare's biggest opportunities, shares of Novo Nordisk would be soaring.

However, this is far from the case. I'm going to break down why a recent piece of news from Novo Nordisk caused the stock to tank. Moreover, I'll explore if now is an opportunity to buy the dip, or run for the hills.

What happened with Novo Nordisk stock?

On Dec. 20, Novo announced results from a phase 3 clinical trial surrounding one of its new GLP-1 candidates, called CagriSema. The name CagriSema is simply an amalgamation of the two primary ingredients in the drug: cagrilintide and semaglutide. Of note, semaglutide is the leading ingredient in Ozempic, Wegovy, and Rybelsus. Per the results of the study, patients who took CagriSema reached an averaged weight reduction of up to 22.7%.

As of Dec. 30, shares of Novo has declined by nearly 17% following the announcement of the CagriSema study. Clearly, investors were not pleased with the outcome of this trial.

Why is this development important?

You're probably wondering why investors reacted the way they did following Novo's latest clinical update. In my eyes, there are two main reasons:

Novo's management had set a benchmark of 25% average weight reduction for the CagriSema study. As mentioned, the entire population of patients taking CagriSema only experienced about a 23% reduction in weight. It is important to note, however, that roughly 40% of patients "reached a weight loss of 25% or more."

The second reason I think investors were spooked by the CagriSema results is related to a recent study published by Novo's top rival in the weight loss space, Eli Lilly. Lilly is the maker of GLP-1 treatments Mounjaro and Zepbound. For comparison’s sake, Mounjaro is essentially Lilly's answer to Ozempic, while Zepbound is the company's response to Wegovy. In a study published on Dec. 4, Lilly found that patients taking Zepbound experienced an average weight reduction of 20% versus those who took Wegovy reached an average weight loss of roughly 14%. When taking these figures into account, there's an argument to be made that CagriSema is not superior to Zepbound, leading some investors to question the strength of Novo's clinical pipeline.

Is Novo Nordisk stock a buy right now?

On the surface, the results from the CagriSema trial appear underwhelming. But as I often encourage investors to do, it's important to zoom out and consider the bigger picture.

In a study from 2021, patients taking semaglutide experienced an average weight reduction of 14.9% over the course of a 68-week trial period. So even though CagriSema fell short of its goal in the phase 3 trial, there's an argument to be made that it is still a stronger treatment when benchmarked against Semaglutide (i.e., Wegovy and Ozempic).

To me, I see the precipitous sell-off in Novo stock as emotional, panic-driven behavior. At the end of the day, I think CagriSema will become a blockbuster drug for Novo in the long run. For now, the company simply needs to go back to the drawing board and tweak some of its research and development (R&D) protocols in order to improve CagriSema's efficacy before it reaches approval from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

Right now, Novo stock is trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 22.5 -- its lowest level in well over a year. I think now is a terrific opportunity to scoop up shares of Novo on the dip and lower your cost basis if you're an existing investor, or initiate a position if you've been following the company for a while.

All told, Novo's long-term thesis still holds up, and I think the company will remain a leader in the GLP-1 space for years to come.

Update Jan 1 2025 Happy New Year

Happy New Year !

Wishing you all the best in the coming year

I have penned a few Money Matters articles on those big box stores and the little mom and pop local stores we all like to support and how they coexist with each other.

The first article centered on the idea the big box stores like Costco, Walmart, Home Depot and Lowes were killing the small local stores in neighborhoods around the country. The reasons were lower overhead cost per purchase, better selection, ease of access (the one stop shopping experience), of course, price.

The subsequent article a few years later turned the tide on the big box store with the subject being that they themselves were now dealing with their own threat of existence because of the online retailer Amazon.

Some big box stores were slow to react while others like Walmart, Target, and others took a quick lesson from Amazon and started their own online services.

The big box stores also had an advantage. Buyers could actually view the item at the store. When shopping online, this was not possible.

Amazon countered that concern by implementing a no-questions asked, super easy return policy.

When CoVid arrived and the governments of the world decided to implement shutdowns of just about everything, this further exasperated the plight of the in-person shopping experience and put even more pressure on local establishments. As the shopping environment has progressed along, the mom and pop stores, those that survived that is, did have a leg to stand on, albeit a wobbly one.

We found out that people care about their local stores and many didn’t mind paying a few pennies extra for the local experience. Many mom and pops met their shoppers half way with price concessions making sure the “few extra pennies” didn’t turn into “many extra dollars” as people still have to watch their budgets. The severe inflationary pressures of the last few years obviously hasn’t help local stores to keep the doors open but they are a stubborn bunch as well as some of their local supporters luckily are a compassionate bunch.

That being as it may, some local vendors resist dropping prices and rely on the local shopping experience as something no online retailer or big box store can compete with.

For some store owners however, how to compete with the large corporate outlets still eludes them.

I once shopped at a small store in my local township Nevada City that was tucked away in a quaint hallway like shopping area in an historic old building that had only a few small stores in it.

The area also contained a Persian Rug outlet, a gourmet chocolatier as well as a few other specialty shops. The historic building environment and the tucked away shops offered a somewhat magical experience so I frequented a small gift boutique during birthdays, Valentine’s Day, and Christmas. The store was very small, had a very limited selection and the prices were high, but I liked the owner, wanted to support the shop and was always warmly welcomed.

After shopping there three or four times a year for more than a decade, I bought my wife a blouse there one day and when her birthday arrived, the wife tried it on. Me, being a clueless husband when it came to sizing, had of course bought the wrong size. I should have known better than to try and buy clothes for the opposite sex but I felt brave that day so what the heck.

In any case, the blouse didn’t fit so I went back to my little boutique and asked if the owner had a larger size. The owner said no and when I asked for a refund, she said the store policy was on a credit. Yea, I know this is the policy of many a store but seeing as I went out of my way more times than I would care to shop there and support her, she still refused to refund my money and stuck to the credit offer. Seeing nothing else, I gently reminded her that I would of course be back but would prefer the refund, she stuck to her guns. I thanked her and left the store and never returned.

In conclusion, our local shops are a great place to engage with our neighbors, make a pleasant day of shopping and walking the town and supporting our small town purveyors. But there is a give and take that should always be considered by the small shop owner. Don’t act like a big box or mega store with stringent policies that can’t be bent because you’re too focused on the almighty buck. We shop there because we’re neighbors, so treat us as such.

“Watching the markets so you don’t have to”

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(As mentioned please use the below disclaimer exactly) THANKS (Regulations)

This article expresses the opinion of Marc Cuniberti and is not meant as investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities, nor represents the opinion of any bank, investment firm or RIA, nor this media outlet, its staff, members or underwriters. Mr. Cuniberti holds a B.A. in Economics with honors, 1979, and California Insurance License #0L34249 His insurance agency is BAP INC. insurance services. Email: news@moneymanagementradio.com

Call me (530) 559 1214

Can Bitcoin replace the US DOLLAR UPDATE DECEMBER 29 2024+

US DOLLAR OR BITCOIN

Crypto currency comes in many forms. Bitcoin being the most notable, there are many others that go by names like Ethereum, Ripple, Stellar Loomis, EOS and Lightcoin to name a few. There are an estimated 10,000 crypto currencies now in existence.

The idea behind crypto is it is anywhere and everywhere there is internet access. Not controlled by any one government, crypto is “mined” by using mathematical formulas called block chain technology. Wikipedia describes it as: “A cryptocurrency is a digital asset designed to work as a medium of exchange that uses strong cryptography to secure financial transactions, control the creation of additional units, and verify the transfer of assets”.

As a currency, crypto currencies meets some of the characteristics a medium of exchange must possess. A currency must be hard to replicate, be divisible, recognizable, have uniformity, be portable, have acceptability and maintain a store of value. On the first six characteristics, crypto coins could be argued fit the bill nicely. My objection is having issue with the last characteristic, maintaining a store of value.

Its goes without saying that at times, the price of crypto currencies can vary tremendously. Lately, that has been an understatement.

Stories of skyrocketing prices and subsequent roller coaster like plunges are common. Bitcoin itself briefly breached 100,000.00 a coin just a few weeks ago.

Although a rising price may convince some investors to believe crypto might make an acceptable currency replacement, the very fact it often moves so violently violates the store of value characteristic a useable currency must possess.

Store of value means both the buyer and seller of the currency must have faith in its stability. Stability meaning it doesn’t go up or down much. Certainly the buyer of crypto relishes the meteoric rise when it occurs, but like all things money, there is always someone else on the other side of the trade.

If a buyer of crypto makes an overnight fortune on a price spike, the seller of that very same crypto lost an equal amount in value.

For to buy crypto, one must have exchanged something else for it.

For example, if it is another currency that is exchanged, the person who sold the crypto now holds a currency that has fallen in value by an equal amount.

Given the recent price instability of Bitcoin, the very definition of maintaining a store of value is almost nonexistent and therefore, at this place in time, Bitcoin cannot be considered a usable currency replacement.

Another attraction of crypto is the fact no one or no one government can shut it down. Again from Wikipedia: “It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator…………”.

Since the internet is worldwide and unstoppable, the thinking goes that crypto coins can’t be confiscated by meddling governments.

However, governments of the world don’t have to confiscate crypto currencies to stop their usage. All they have to do is shutdown the exchange websites that trade them. Sounds unlikely but many countries have already done so.

Quite simply, if your country of residence decides it doesn’t want you trading crypto, it can shut down all the ways you can access it.

Internet workarounds are certainly possible, but to the average Joe, cyber space backdoors may be difficult to access.

Central governments will always strive to maintain strict controls over their respective currencies to insure their viability.

A country’s currency is the lifeblood of their economy so controlling it insures the ability to use the government check book, which means the ability to deficit spend without restriction.

History has proven time and time again a government will insure its currency remains valid and is not usurped by another. This would obviously include curtailing the use of Bitcoin or any other currency whose ownership becomes too wide spread.

That said, to say central governments aren’t fully aware of the threat crypto coins may present to their specific currencies would to be more than naïve.

The U.S. government is already looking into issuing its own version of cyber coin called the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). President elect Trump has also indicated the U.S. government is looking to expand its control of the Bitcoin market by establishing a Bitcoin reserve of its own.

The U.S. is not alone. The issue is being discussed among central banks worldwide.

That said, in this analysts opinion, it’s only a matter of time before governments bring down a harder hammer on the entire cyber coin phenomenon in order to insure continued control of all things money.

“Watching the markets so you don’t have to”

(end)

(As mentioned please use the below disclaimer exactly) THANKS (Regulations)

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Update December 28 2024 How kill (or run it correctly) a resturant !

Good Resturants are pretty rare!

Read why ..

Nine out of ten new businesses fail within the first two years of startup and of those businesses, the restaurant business can be one of the toughest.

I am always amazed at how some restaurant owners just don’t get it as to how to best turn a profit and keep their customers happy.

I have never run a restaurant business but my wife’s father had one for 40 years and I frequent dining establishments a lot because of my work and the travel it entails.

First off, it matters how good the food is of course, but I’ve been served cold soup, brown, wilted lettuce, broken eggs, toast coming late, meals served sporadically instead of all patrons getting their meals at the same time. You name it, it’s all inexcusable.

But there are so many other things that can hurt a restaurant to the point where folding up shop eventually becomes necessary.

The face of the business are the staff out front, and needless to say if they are under trained, not trained at all, ornery, rude or just plain not likeable, the restaurant is off to a bad start.

Not having your ducks in a row on opening day is a killer. Sure, there are some people that will give you a break on this one, but not me and many others like me. You either have it together or don’t open until you do. Either that or give a break on the price, but of course, that never happens.

New restaurants, by the fact that they are new, will usually garner lots of customers, but if someone has a bad experience, he or she will be sure to tell their friends and there goes a whole slew of people that might have come through the doors.

Restaurants live and die by word of mouth and owners have to be sure the word will be a glowing one.

Cleanliness is tantamount. I’ve been to a sandwich shop whose bathroom was disgusting. Another supposedly 5 star steak house in Portland had a cart of dirty dishes in the entrance way. A well-known eatery up near my house had an entrance area that smelled like soured fruit. Floors with leftover food from previous customers, dirty or greasy condiment containers on your table, crumbs on your seat or gum under that table all reek of poor management.

Paying attention to the details as to what is served and when, is also a way to maximize profits and might mean the difference between staying open or locking the doors somewhere down the line.

For example, a popular chain restaurant in the Carolinas I visited was packed every night. When I asked the waitress, who was obviously very well trained what the secret was, she said she had a full week of training, both written, off duty and with a trainer in real time.

They had strict rules: Sit people at clean tables and floors always and each was checked prior to seating. Offer cocktails within 3 minutes of seating and get those to the table immediately along with menus. They knew that alcohol stimulates appetite, throws frugality out the window and that drinks are highly profitable. People with a bit of booze in them order more, are more patient and also order more drinks. They never brought breadsticks or whatever before people ordered their food as it fills them up and they order less. All meals were checked by the cook, a main cook or manager and the server as to temperature, accuracy and appearance and any one person in the loop could turn food back without fear of retribution.

“Brilliant” I thought. What a concept: Well trained, thoughtful service and timing, clean surroundings and attention to every detail.

In conclusion, a word about restaurant reviews. We have a few restaurant review social media sights and many are rife with positive reviews and positive reviews only. Post a bad review and some people even chastise the posting party for not being understanding when it comes to the difficulty of running such an establishment.

Excuse me, but reviews are supposed to be honest. Sure it might be harsh on the owners, but people work hard for their money and deserve to get their money’s worth. Brain surgery is hard too but who is going to be “understanding” if they blow it because they are new or having a bad day. Honest reviews better both customers and restaurant owners. Customers get value and owners get to know what they’re doing wrong so they can fix it and survive. And isn’t both of these goals what we’re all after?

“Watching the markets so you don’t have to”

(end)

(As mentioned please use the below disclaimer exactly) THANKS (Regulations)

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Update Dec 23 2024 Fund rasisers asking us for more money?

Those fund raising programs!

Give us a break!

With the arrival of Hurricane Helene, the advertisements petitioning for public donations pepper the news outlets.

When similar disasters befall our nation and indeed the world, as far back as I can remember the public is sought after to donate money to help those affected by the catastrophe.

Not to sound callous but I find myself reacting negatively to such fund raising programs. Not because I’m a cold unfeeling person. Lord knows, as well as many living in Nevada County, my pet peeve toward lifting others up comes in the form of my matching food bank programs called Turkey Matters in which I run several times a year.

Not to stroll too far off topic but my latest fundraiser to address food insecurity is the annual Turkey Matters matching program at Interfaith Food Ministries in Grass Valley where we buy holiday dinners with fixings and I match your donation with my own money. The program runs through Thanksgiving and you can donate by contacting Interfaith Food Ministries at (530) 273-8132.

Most agree we are constantly bombarded to donate our hard earned money to the latest catastrophe or war rescue effort. Considering the billions the governments of the world toss into the bailouts of financial institutions and add to that the willy-nilly spending on every this, that and the other thing, you have to wonder why ask us little people for our money when many of us are starving ourselves.

I continually receive those preprinted return address labels by the truck load looking for a few dollars for war veterans. The Wounded Warrior Project is another organization looking for money to help our war veterans. The flyers for address labels ask for just a few dollars if that, and the Wounded Warrior Project will send you one of their blankets for a mere $19 a month. Add in fundraisers for the homeless, distressed pets, crumbling schools and what have you, and the extended hands looking to be filled are never-ending.

Now you might ask why in the world would you and I be a bit perturbed at such seemingly worthwhile fund raising endeavors?

Well let’s see.

How about the multi-hundred billion dollar chips act that Washington just doled out to for-profit semi-conductor companies to incentivize these already cash rich companies to make computer chips here in the U.S.?

The stocks of many of these companies have gone ballistic in the last two years and the CEOs of some of these companies are some of the highest paid executives in the world, many of them having a net worth of many tens of billions.

And how about the 44 billion already spend of your tax dollars going to fight the war in Ukraine which some argue is an unwinnable war?

The infamous bailouts to the banking conglomerates over many decades totals well into the multi trillions. The Federal Reserve’s ongoing Quantitative Easing and FOMO programs are yet another direct money spigot into the financial system. Many more programs are shuttling unimaginable amounts to insurance companies, hedge funds, troubled brokerage houses, foreign entities, foreign countries, foreign banking systems and other financial entities that you will never know of. There seems to be no shortage of funds where our largest institutions are concerned.

Then I open my mail and a veteran organization asks me for a five dollar bill to help them provide for those that served our country, or perhaps a soldier needs a new prosthetic or a hospital or school that doesn’t have paint peeling off its walls.

I could go on with more sickening examples as you probably could and in the midst of writing this article they’re hitting me up again to help those impacted by the recent hurricanes.

What a travesty.

Washington has for decades, and continues to throw billions of dollars out secret windows to God knows who and for God knows what, while many worthwhile programs supporting our own citizens go begging.

Meanwhile the “ultra-connected” throughout the country and indeed the world get billions at the drop of a hat while the programs that support our citizens on the Main Street go scrounging for nickels and dimes wherever they can find them.

And in the midst of all of it, the putrid odor of government audacity permeates my olfactory senses.

Am I the only one in the room who smells the stink of the whole thing?

“Watching the markets so you don’t have to”

(end)

(As mentioned please use the below disclaimer exactly) THANKS (Regulations)

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